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Prediction for CME (2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-24T03:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34152/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an X3.3 flare starting at 2024-10-24T03:30Z from AR 3869 (approx. S17E68). Brightening and post eruptive arcades are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/335, EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also seen from STEREO A EUV 195/304. Arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 15nt to 22nt. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 385 km/s to 511 km/s at 16:09Z, with an increase in temperature observed as well. The signature was preceded by a prior enhancement in solar wind parameters, most notably magnetic field components, associated with IPS: 2024-10-26T11:35Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T15:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T15:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 24/0608 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 1552
Longitude (deg): S25
Latitude (deg): E44
Half-angular width (deg): 55

Notes: CME source was about 10-15 degrees closer to the limb than could be captured in the cone, but parameters were chosen to attempt to optimise covering the earth-directed material.

Lead Time: 37.07 hour(s)
Difference: 0.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-10-25T02:30Z

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